Daily Rate Lock Advisory

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Positive

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

August's Consumer Price Index (CPI) that was posted early this morning showed few surprises, but did have one that is good news and another that is unfavorable for bonds and mortgage rates. The good news came in the year over year overall CPI rate of 2.5%. This was much softer than June’s 2.9% and lower than the 2.6% that was expected. It is also the slowest overall rate of inflation since early 2021. The monthly overall reading came in up 0.2%, as it was predicted to do.

High

Negative

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The bad news came in the more important core data that excludes volatile food and energy prices. Today’s release revealed a 0.3% rise last month that was a bit higher than the expected 0.2%. The annual rate pegged forecasts of 3.2%, but the stronger monthly reading is preventing a better reaction in the bond market and restricting this morning’s improvement in rates.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

We also have the 1:00 PM ET announcement of today’s 10-year Treasury Note auction to watch. If investor demand for the securities is strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve later today. However, weak levels of interest could lead to selling in the broader bond market that may push mortgage rates higher. This scenario will be repeated tomorrow when 30-year Bonds are sold.

High

Unknown

Producer Price Index (PPI)

There are two economic reports scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow, starting with the sister report of today’s CPI. August’s Producer Price Index (PPI) will give us an indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy rather than the consumer level. There are also two readings that analysts follow in this release. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% increase in both of them. The overall annual reading is expected to have slowed while core data rose slightly. Stronger than expected readings would be bad news for rates.

Medium

Unknown

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Last week’s unemployment figures will be released tomorrow morning also. Analysts are expecting to see 230,000 new claims for benefits, up from the previous week’s 227,000 initial filings. Rising claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector, meaning a larger number would be good news for rates.

Tier One Mortgage, LLC

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Float / Lock Recommendation